Churn is 12% a year. Half of it happens in the first four months.

An annual churn rate averages away the one thing that matters most about it: when customers actually leave, and what that timing says about where the problem sits.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for Churn is 12% a year. Half of it happens in the first four months.

A single annual churn figure is one of the most comfortable numbers in a management pack. It is stable, it benchmarks well against the industry, and it invites the conclusion that retention is a slow, structural matter to be improved gradually. Then someone plots the leavers by tenure and the picture changes entirely. The losses are not spread evenly across the base. They are concentrated in the opening weeks, and the customers who survive the first few months go on to stay for years. That distinction matters because the two…

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