The hire starts in April. Net capacity falls until August.

Hiring plans assume new people add capacity from day one. For several months they subtract it, and almost nobody models the dip.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The hire starts in April. Net capacity falls until August.

A growing business decides it needs three more people. The budget is approved, the roles are advertised, and the forecast is adjusted upward from the month the contracts start. The logic feels sound: three more people, three more people’s worth of output, minus a settling-in allowance of a few weeks. What actually happens is that output flattens, then dips slightly, then recovers, then finally rises: somewhere between four and nine months later depending on the complexity of the work. The dip is not a failure of recruitment. It is the…

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