The metric predicted revenue until you started paying for it

A leading indicator that worked for two years can stop working the week it lands in a bonus plan, and the mechanism behind that is entirely predictable.

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A pattern shows up in the numbers. Months where the team sends more proposals turn into quarters with more revenue. The relationship is clean enough to build on, so the count of proposals goes on the dashboard, into the weekly meeting, and eventually into someone’s variable pay. Proposal volume duly rises. Revenue does not follow. Twelve months later the indicator is quietly retired and replaced with another one, which will suffer the same fate. This is not a measurement failure in the technical sense. The data was accurate. The correlation…

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