The pipeline is £2.4m. A third of it hasn’t moved in ninety days.

Stage-weighted forecasts assume deals are progressing. The single most predictive number in most pipelines is one nobody reports.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The pipeline is £2.4m. A third of it hasn’t moved in ninety days.

Most sales forecasts are built the same way: each open opportunity carries a probability drawn from its stage, the values are multiplied out and summed, and the total becomes the number the board sees. It is a reasonable method with one large blind spot. Stage tells you how far a deal has travelled. It says nothing about whether it is still moving. A £2.4m pipeline where every deal advanced in the last fortnight and a £2.4m pipeline where a third of the value has been static since the spring produce…

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