The plan needs three times the leads. It assumes the same conversion rate.

Growth plans built by multiplying the funnel treat conversion as a fixed property of the business. It is nothing of the kind, and the arithmetic fails in a predictable order.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The plan needs three times the leads. It assumes the same conversion rate.

A revenue plan arrives at a familiar shape. Revenue needs to go from four million to twelve. Average deal size is stable, so deal count has to triple. Conversion from enquiry to sale is 22%, so enquiries have to triple too. The marketing budget is sized against the current cost per lead, the number is large but defensible, and the board approves it. The plan contains one assumption doing more work than everything else on the page: that a business converting 22% of its enquiries today will convert 22% of…

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