The market is forecast to grow 6%. The market is 400 firms and we sell to 90.

When your addressable market is a list of names rather than a percentage, growth stops being a forecast and becomes arithmetic. Most plans never do the arithmetic.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The market is forecast to grow 6%. The market is 400 firms and we sell to 90.

There is a particular kind of growth plan that looks rigorous and is not. It cites an industry growth rate, applies an ambition premium on top, and arrives at a number. The logic runs: the market is growing 6%, we intend to outperform, so 15% is stretching but reasonable. This reasoning works tolerably well in fragmented markets with tens of thousands of buyers, where no single firm’s behaviour is visible to you and the aggregate does behave like a statistical mass. It falls apart the moment your addressable market is…

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