The forecast missed high six quarters running. The plan still uses the forecast.

When a number is wrong in the same direction every quarter, the error stops being noise and becomes information, and most businesses throw it away.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The forecast missed high six quarters running. The plan still uses the forecast.

A forecast that is wrong is unremarkable. A forecast that is wrong in the same direction, by roughly the same proportion, for six quarters in a row is something else entirely. It is a measurement instrument with a known calibration error. And yet in most businesses it is treated exactly as it was the first time it missed: with disappointment, a conversation about discipline, and then the next forecast, produced the same way, feeding the same hiring plan and the same cash projection. The interesting question is not why forecasts…

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