The pipeline is £4.2m. The quarter closed at £610k.

Most forecasting failures aren't optimism. They're arithmetic performed on two quantities that were never the same kind of number.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The pipeline is £4.2m. The quarter closed at £610k.

A sales pipeline and a revenue forecast get treated as the same object viewed at different magnifications. They are not. One is a stock of open opportunities; the other is a flow of closed business within a window. When a business reports £4.2m of pipeline and lands £610k in the quarter, the usual diagnosis is that the sales team is optimistic. Sometimes it is. More often the two numbers were never commensurable, and no amount of pressure applied to the sales meeting will make them so. The distinction matters because…

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