The pipeline is three times target. The quarter missed by 20%.

Pipeline coverage is the most quoted number in sales management and one of the least informative. Here is what it conceals, and what tends to predict the quarter better.

By Steve 5 min read
Abstract bridge artwork for The pipeline is three times target. The quarter missed by 20%.

Coverage of three times target is supposed to feel comfortable. It is quoted in board packs, in weekly sales meetings, and in the reassurance a sales director offers a nervous founder six weeks out. Then the quarter closes 20% short, the pipeline is still three times the next target, and the same conversation happens again. When forecast misses repeat, the instinct is usually to question the seller’s optimism. The more productive question is what the coverage ratio was ever supposed to measure. Coverage is a restatement of a win rate…

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